Kde hledat výnos v roce 2017 – náročné období pro konzervativní investory

Poměrně zajímavý graf publikovala investiční skupina BNP Paribas invesment partners. Ukazuje  jak rozdílný výnos nabízela jednotlivá aktiva k 31.12.2007 ( těsně před finanční krizí)  a jaký výnos lze očekávat od stejných aktiv  o deset let později v roce 2017.

Zatímco v roce 2007 mohl konzervativní klient koupit desetiletý státní dluhopis Německa s více než 4% výnosem, dnes se tento dluhopis pohybuje v tzv. zelené nule a výnos je 0,.. % .  10 letý dluhopis Velké Británie přinesl  v roce 2007 podobný výnos jako německý, dnes  generuje výnos okolo 1%.
O něco lepší je to při nákupu desetiletých státních dluhopisů USA kde se dostáváme na 2,5 % .

Korporátní dluhopisy firem s investičním raitingem se dnes nabízí pod 1%. V roce 2007 přinášely výnos nad 5%. Evropské korporátní dluhopisy „neznačkové“  (Hihg Yield) lze dnes pořídit s kuponem pod 4%, v roce 2007 to bylo 9%.

Akcie na trzích emerging markets  se obchodují za ceny kdy dividenda tvoří 2% z ceny akcie, stejně je tomu s cenou akcií v USA.  Evropské akcie jsou  o něco málo levnější a firmy vyplácejí v průměru 3% dividendu oproti jejich  současné průměrné ceně.  V jednoduchosti lze říci, že akcionáři který investuje 100 Kč dostává na dividendě 2 – 3 Kč. To znamená, že zainvestuje-li s tímto záměrem do akcií v tuto dobu  jeho investice se  touto formou vrátí za 50 let ( zjednodušený pohled).

Evropský realitní trh nabízí průměrný výnos okolo 3,5% stejně jako v době těsně před krizí.

Nejvyšší výnosy lze nalézt na dluhopisech rozvíjejících se zemí, ať již vydaných v amerických dolarech 6% oproti 6,5% v roce 2007 , nebo v lokální měně 7,5% oproti 7% před deseti lety.
V případě dluhopisů emerging markets vydaných v USD je nutné brát na zřetel, že půjde-li dolar nahoru , budou se rozevírat nůžky mezi cenou za který musí dlužník hradit svůj dluh a domácí měnou ve které pravděpodobně inkasuje většinu tržeb.

Některé druhy aktiv jsou v průměru velmi drahé, některé nevynášejí téměř nic. Generování výnosu vyžaduje v této době mnohem rozsáhlejší alokaci a velmi dobrý výběr .  Současně by měl  být investor při očekávání výnosu  ochoten přijmout o něco větší riziko. Je velmi důležité  jasně si uvědomovat potenciální plusy a minusy  v jednotlivých třídách aktiv a ujasnit si co od nich lze očekávat.  Příležitosti na trzích jsou stále, jen je nutné mnohem důkladněji hledat.

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