Akciová rally 2017 pod Řípem a na Aljašce

V tomto týdnu  jsem navštívil přednášku jednoho renomovaného portfolio managera , který stejně jako většina ostatních kolegů hlásí, jak úspěšný je pro akcie dosavadní vývoj roku 2017.
Posuďme sami,  jaké zisky si připisují za první tři čtvrtletí hlavní akciové a dluhopisové indexy okolo nás.

 

 

Hurá,hurá,hurá  se sázka na akcie se v roce 2017 opravdu vyplácí.  To je jistě pravda. Druhá věc je, jak se tento růst projeví v peněženkách investorů.  Rozdíl je v tom do jakého v tomto případě například  indexu  je zainvestován investor  pod Řípem , v Tyrolsku,  nebo  na Aljašce. Velmi záleží na tom,  v jaké měně vývoj daného aktiva měříme a současně v jaké měně budeme zisky případně  vybírat.

Měnové riziko je  velké téma pro českého investora v roce 2017. Na počátku druhého čtvrtletí jsme očekávali ukončení intervencí  české koruny vůči Euru a její následné posilování.  Jak vidíme, za půl roku posílila koruna vůči Euru o 3,3 % ( což je spíše méně než se očekávalo).  Hlavní rozdílovou měnou pro první tři čtvrtletí roku 2017 je vývoj amerického dolaru, ve kterém je  měřena „většina hlavních“ indexů.

 

Akciová rally  níže uvedených indexů za první ¾ roku 2017 vypadá z pohledu českého investora takto:

Na tyto výsledky můžeme mít mnoho pohledů.  Vždy závisí na investorovi a jeho týmu, jakých závodů v rámci jeho rally  2017 se  rozhodne zúčastnit a jakou strategii zvolí. To že se v dosavadním průběhu roku nedařilo americkému dolaru, může znamenat v tuto chvíli zajímavou investiční příležitost a využít tohoto poklesu. Je současně mnoho fondů v USD, které připisují za dosavadní období roku 2017 zhodnocení více než 30% .

Někdo může namítnout, že jeho fondy jsou zajištěny do české koruny a pohyby kurzu ho nechávají chladným.  Zkontrolujte si prosím svá portfolia. Existuje několik způsobů měnového zajištění, které mohou vaše fondy využívat.  Velká většina fondů se nezajištuje vůči všem měnám. Jedním z důvodů je to že to něco stojí a zvláště v této době kdy byl uvolněn kurz koruny bylo zajištění velmi drahé .
Některé fondy s označením CZK nejsou měnově vůbec zajištěny. Pouze přepočítávají aktiva ve fondu do aktuálního kurzu v české koruně.

Rozhodně nejsem zastáncem pracovat pouze s fondy 100% měnově zajištěnými. Spíše naopak.
Měnové zajištění je dost drahé a z dlouhodobého hlediska to klienty připravuje o výnosy       ( prostě to něco stojí).  Nabídka takovýchto fondů je navíc na českém trhu velmi omezená. Velmi mnoho atraktivních příležitostí nikdy v CZK nebude.

Tento článek je psán  pro to, že se velmi často setkávám s klienty, kteří mi říkají že jejich investice jsou měnově zajištěny ( vždyť fond je přeci v CZK) a následně jsou velmi překvapeni, že tomu tak není. Nechte si zkontrolovat způsob měnového zajištění u vašich investic.

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